Prediction markets effectively became a new asset class Sunday as platforms processed nearly $1.5 billion in volume on Super Bowl LX. The record-breaking activity coincided with reports that high-frequency trading giant Jump Trading is executing equity deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling the permanent institutionalization of event contracts.
The Liquidity Injection
Jump Trading is reportedly finalizing stakes in the sector’s two dominant players via an "equity-for-liquidity" structure. Instead of a traditional cash venture round, Jump will earn ownership by providing market-making services. The deal terms reportedly scale Jump’s equity in Polymarket based on the volume of liquidity provided to its U.S. operations.
This marks a critical market structure shift. While prediction markets market themselves as "peer-to-peer" exchanges, the entry of a firm like Jump, which specializes in millisecond-latency arbitrage in traditional equities and crypto, guarantees that retail traders are now trading against a professional "house" algorithm.
Volume Breakdown
The Kalshi exchange cleared $500.1 million on the Super Bowl outcome alone, a massive multiple of the $27 million traded on the previous year’s game. Including side markets, Kalshi’s daily volume hit an internal record of $871 million.
Offshore giant Polymarket recorded approximately $700 million in volume on the game winner market. Retail brokerage Robinhood, which recently integrated event contracts, added another $258 million to the tally.
"We have moved past the era of the ‘bookie’ and into the era of the ‘exchange.’"
The Bad Bunny Anomaly
The depth of liquidity extended beyond the game winner. A single novelty contract on Kalshi, predicting the first song performed by Bad Bunny during the halftime show, generated $113.5 million in volume. For context, this single prop bet attracted more capital than the 24-hour volume of most mid-cap altcoins.
The Seattle Seahawks’ 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots settled the primary markets, but the volume data confirms that prediction markets have successfully siphoned liquidity from traditional sportsbooks. State-regulated books typically hold a monopoly on sports wagering, but the CFTC-regulated status of Kalshi allows it to operate legally across the U.S. as a derivatives exchange.
Jump Trading’s involvement suggests they view this regulatory moat as defensible and the volume as sustainable. The firm has reportedly assigned over 20 staff members solely to prediction market operations.
