Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo stated on X this week that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains valid, pushing back against the “supercycle” narrative that suggests institutional ETFs have permanently broken the asset’s volatility patterns. As Bitcoin hovers near $90,500 (+0.1%), Woo argues the underlying network data shows no evidence of a structural break, yet.
The Receipt: Heartbeats and 2020 Echoes
Woo’s defense hinges on flow data, which he claims currently mimics the accumulation phase of early 2020 rather than a cycle-ending blowoff. He dismantled the argument that recent price variances signal the death of the four-year rhythm, employing a medical analogy to explain the noise:
“If your heart beats at 70 bpm and drops slightly while you sleep, it does not mean a resting heartbeat no longer exists just because the timing varied.”
The analyst contends that long-term holder flows have not yet reached the saturation levels typical of a cycle peak. Until network data in 2026 demonstrates clear “non-cyclical behavior,” Woo maintains the default stance is business as usual.
The Institutional Counter-Thesis
Woo’s position clashes with a growing consensus among firms like Grayscale and Bitwise, who argue that the $50B+ influx from Spot ETFs has dampened Bitcoin’s notorious volatility. This “Supercycle” theory posits that continuous institutional allocation will smooth out the violent 80% drawdowns of the past, effectively decoupling price from the halving schedule.
Woo remains unconvinced. For him, the liquidity cycle, driven by central bank policy and supply mechanics, is the heartbeat. A skipped beat isn’t cardiac arrest; it’s just noise.
