Gemini is executing a full withdrawal from the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia, effectively ceding its international retail footprint to double down on the United States. The exchange set a strict timeline: accounts in these regions flip to withdrawal-only mode on March 5, 2026, with a complete shutdown scheduled for April 6, 2026.
The contraction coincides with a 25% headcount reduction, approximately 200 employees, bringing the firm’s workforce down to roughly 400. This marks a sharp decline from its 2022 peak of 1,100 staff. In a note to employees, founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss cited the “organizational complexity” of foreign markets and a lack of demand to justify the operational burn.
The reality is that America has the world’s greatest capital markets and America has always been where it’s at for Gemini. So it’s time for Gemini to focus and double down on America.
The Prediction Market Pivot
The retreat signals a capital rotation toward “Gemini Predictions,” the firm’s bet on the prediction market sector currently dominated by Polymarket. The Winklevoss twins described the vertical as a potential “truth machine” that could Eclipse traditional capital markets. Since its quiet launch in mid-December 2025, the platform has processed $24 million in volume, a figure the firm must scale aggressively to offset lost spot trading revenue.
AI & Efficiency Claims
Management attributed the depth of the cuts to AI-driven efficiencies, claiming new internal tools have increased engineering productivity by “100x.” This rationalization, replacing headcount with software leverage, mirrors a broader trend of exchanges automating compliance and support to survive the prolonged volume drought.
Market Reaction
The restructuring arrives amid a brutal backdrop for the firm. Shares of Gemini (NASDAQ: GEMI) slid 7% on the news, extending a post-IPO drawdown that has erased 85% of the stock’s value. The broader sector remains under pressure, with Bitcoin trading 40% below its October 2025 peak, forcing operators to prioritize cash preservation over expansion.
UK and Australian users are being directed to eToro as an offboarding partner, though self-custody withdrawals remain available until the April deadline.
