BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has formally diagnosed the Federal Reserve’s new liquidity program with a severe case of rebranding. In his latest essay, Love Language, Hayes argues the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP) is nothing more than stealth Quantitative Easing (QE) designed to confuse the market while the money printer restarts.
The essay, released Friday, outlines a specific roadmap for Bitcoin: a frustrating chop between $80,000 and $100,000 this winter, followed by a violent repricing to $200,000 by March 2026 once the market wakes up to the liquidity injection.
The Receipt: RMP vs. QE
The Federal Reserve officially describes RMP as a technical tool to maintain “ample reserves” by purchasing short-term Treasury bills. Hayes calls this a distinction without a difference. By stepping into the market to buy government debt, regardless of duration, the Fed is creating new money to finance the U.S. deficit, exactly as it did during the post-2008 and post-COVID eras.
Love Language: Euphemistic terms and acronyms created by politicians and central bankers describing money printing. The RMP is a thinly disguised way for the Fed to cash the government’s checks.
Hayes identifies New York Fed President John Williams as the architect of this soft-launch stimulus, noting that Williams has publicly supported balance sheet expansion to grease banking liquidity. For crypto markets, the mechanism matters less than the net result: fiat debasement.
The Trade: Chop Then Pop
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $87,300, struggling to break the psychological six-figure barrier. Hayes attributes this stall to the market’s initial failure to recognize RMP as inflationary stimulus. He predicts a period of sideways action where traders are lulled to sleep, believing the Fed’s narrative that “this isn’t QE.”
The pivot point, according to Hayes, arrives in early 2026. As the RMP balance sheet expands and the continued fiscal spending forces the Fed to buy more debt, the “stealth” label will peel off. Hayes targets a local bottom above $124,000, with a blow-off top hitting $200,000 by March 2026.
For now, the directive is patience. The liquidity tap is open, even if the label on the handle has changed.
