The “Exit Liquidity” Era
The 2025 vintage of token launches has delivered catastrophic returns for retail investors, with data now confirming that the Token Generation Event (TGE) has effectively morphed into an exit strategy for insiders. A new market analysis by Momento Research reveals that 85% of the 118 tokens launched this year are trading below their initial listing price.
The numbers strip away the marketing veneer: 100 out of 118 tracked tokens are underwater. The median project saw its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) collapse by 71% post-launch. For retail buyers, the message is brutal. If you waited for the public listing, you were the liquidity.
Heavy Bags: BERA and SYND
The carnage was not limited to low-cap vaporware; high-profile infrastructure plays led the race to the bottom. Syndicate (SYND) has effectively zeroed out early public buyers, trading down 93.6% from its launch valuation. Similarly, the highly anticipated Berachain (BERA), once touted as a DeFi darling, has shed 93.5% of its value, leaving late entrants holding heavy bags while early backers likely realized gains.
Momento Research founder Ash Liew noted the structural shift in market mechanics:
“TGE isn’t early anymore. Venture capital firms invest at valuations 100x or 1,000x cheaper. By the time retail gains access, the upside is mathematically capped.”
The Outliers
Amid the sea of red, a handful of anomalies managed to print returns. Aster (ASTER) defied the trend, surging 744% post-TGE, driven by its positioning as a perpetual DEX on BNB Chain. Esports Token (ESPORTS) also posted a 537% gain, though volume depth remains a concern for sustaining those levels.
Institutional Context
This failure rate signals a breaking point for the “low float, high FDV” model that dominated the 2021 and 2024 cycles. With liquidity fragmented across L2s and market makers enforcing tighter spreads, the market is aggressively repricing tokens that launch with inflated valuations. For 2026, the data suggests a pivot: protocols unable to demonstrate revenue at TGE will be shorted into oblivion immediately upon listing.
