Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $78,000 Wednesday after the US July PCE inflation report ran hotter than forecast, pulling stocks and gold down in its wake.
The timing is clumsy. Bitcoin had rallied hard over the prior week, enough to stir talk of a trend shift. Decrypt frames it as the rally’s “first real test,” whether last week’s surge has staying power, or whether the PCE print snaps it back into the range it has traded since October.
The July PCE printed at 3.7% year-on-year, a tenth above the 3.6% analysts expected, Cointelegraph reported, citing the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The monthly index rose 0.2%. Core PCE, stripping food and energy, matched it at 0.2%. That reverses June, which delivered an unexpected drop and the first month-on-month decrease in six years.
The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, wrote on X: “US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed’s 2.0% target.”
TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph showed BTC down as much as 1% on the day. Gold broke below $4,600 an ounce. US equities opened in the red. Bitcoin never threatened $80,000 after the numbers crossed.
The data landed a day before the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote Friday. Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings, expected to show $92.3 billion in quarterly revenue, arrive the same day. Both are catalysts traders are watching for the next directional read, per Decrypt, alongside spot ETF flows and positioning.
CryptoQuant puts the structural question more bluntly. Bitcoin bull markets have historically “officially” begun when price crosses above its 365-day moving average, the analytics firm says, and The Block reports that line currently sits near $83,000. Bitcoin is roughly $5,000 below it.
In practice, that means a close above $83,000 is the bar CryptoQuant treats as confirmation. Not last week’s bounce alone. Traders, as ever, disagree on how to read the gap.
Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst, warned that BTC/USD risks extending a series of lower highs in place since October 2025. The 50-week exponential moving average sits at $77,251, and Bitcoin has not posted a monthly close above it since that October.
“A Monthly Close below the blue resistance would not just solidify another Macro Lower High but would also build a confluent resistance in association with the Macro Downtrend,” Rekt Capital wrote on X.
Unless that cycle of lower highs breaks, the past week’s rebound could still be classified as a “relief rally” inside a broader bear market, he added in a separate post.
That reading leaves out the quarter’s expiry flows. With Warsh and Nvidia both on Friday’s calendar, the positioning into month-end, not the PCE print alone, may decide whether BTC reclaims the 50-week EMA or hands it back.
Elsewhere in the top 10, XRP led losses amid a leverage unwind, Decrypt reported. Secondary market color that shows how thin risk appetite was even before the inflation number.
What is not yet known is whether Warsh signals any shift in the rate-cut path on Friday, and whether the August monthly close prints below the resistance Rekt Capital flagged. CryptoQuant’s $83,000 line is further still. Until one of those resolves, the rally’s defenders and its skeptics are arguing over the same week of price action.
